After
the Empire and the Collapsing American Order
By: Ricardo C. Amaral
The US
economy has not collapsed as yet just like the Soviet Union, because
the US dollar has a special status as the main world reserve currency
– a status that has reached the end of the line, and it's in the
process of being replaced with a new international monetary system.
The world, and the US economic system
it has changed in drastic ways, but the mindset of most Americans is
still stuck in an age long gone.
I have news for you, and most Americans are not aware of that: the Soviet Union collapsed many years ago, and Che Guevara has been dead since the mid-1960's.
The US love to impose sanctions against its perceived enemies and the the poster child for that strategy is Cuba; the US has been trying “regime change” in Cuba since 1960, and after almost 55 years Fidel Castro and his brother still in charge in Cuba, a small island right next door to the United States.
The United States had a good run since the end of WW II, but like all good things must come to an end, and people should not be surprised that the United States has reached the end of the line. The US economy has been in a coma and it is being kept alive by massive US government intervention, and the charity of countries such as Brazil, Japan, and China – the countries that have been lending money for the United States to keep its collapsing economy going a little longer. President John Adams is quoted as saying, "There are two ways to conquer and enslave a nation. One is by sword. The other is by debt."
The best that the US economy can do today is create low paying jobs in companies such as Walmart, McDonald's, and regarding high technology today for the United States means to create companies such as Facebook (for people to chat, and upload photos), Linkedin (a large Rolodex), Netflix (a new way to stream videos), and Groupon (a company where people go to get coupons and discounts).
These are companies that create very few jobs, most jobs outside of the US, and they can go out business almost overnight if someone come up with a new idea people just stop going to these empty shells.
The new US economy is becoming based on innovations such as Zynga - Americans will be able to buy a farm, in Farmville, and they also be able to buy real estate, in Cityville. Americans will live in a complete world of illusion. And Americans finally will be able to conquer the world in this make believe world.
I have news for you, and most Americans are not aware of that: the Soviet Union collapsed many years ago, and Che Guevara has been dead since the mid-1960's.
The US love to impose sanctions against its perceived enemies and the the poster child for that strategy is Cuba; the US has been trying “regime change” in Cuba since 1960, and after almost 55 years Fidel Castro and his brother still in charge in Cuba, a small island right next door to the United States.
The United States had a good run since the end of WW II, but like all good things must come to an end, and people should not be surprised that the United States has reached the end of the line. The US economy has been in a coma and it is being kept alive by massive US government intervention, and the charity of countries such as Brazil, Japan, and China – the countries that have been lending money for the United States to keep its collapsing economy going a little longer. President John Adams is quoted as saying, "There are two ways to conquer and enslave a nation. One is by sword. The other is by debt."
The best that the US economy can do today is create low paying jobs in companies such as Walmart, McDonald's, and regarding high technology today for the United States means to create companies such as Facebook (for people to chat, and upload photos), Linkedin (a large Rolodex), Netflix (a new way to stream videos), and Groupon (a company where people go to get coupons and discounts).
These are companies that create very few jobs, most jobs outside of the US, and they can go out business almost overnight if someone come up with a new idea people just stop going to these empty shells.
The new US economy is becoming based on innovations such as Zynga - Americans will be able to buy a farm, in Farmville, and they also be able to buy real estate, in Cityville. Americans will live in a complete world of illusion. And Americans finally will be able to conquer the world in this make believe world.
Americans will be able to connect to
LinkedIn (the rolodex), and get any job they want since in that world
of illusion you will be able to get a job as a rocket scientist, an
astronaut, be any type of doctor, or even a policeman on Cityville
and Farmville.
You will be able to use your Groupon
coupons to buy anything you want in the Zynga world. You also will be
able to rate the restaurants, and everything else you want to rate
using the Yelp service.
Yes, you will be able to use monopoly
make believe dollars (the new US currency) to buy railroads, houses,
apartment buildings, and so on in Atlantic City, or in any of the
Zynga Cityvilles. Or you will be able to use Bitcoin (a currency
backed by a lot of wishful thinking and nothing more).
The new Fed Chairman still will be trying to blow bubbles as fast as she can with her new monopoly money; to inflate the prices of everything on this new American make believe world.
The Republicans are going to be happy
with this new American make believe system, since when senior
citizens get sick they will be sent to a Zynga Hospital, and would be
taken care by the Zynga doctors, and Zynga make believe drugs, and
the system would use Groupon coupons and monopoly make believe money.
Zynga world is the future of the United
States social-economic system - the world of illusion.
The reality is: the US technology is going to hell in a handbasket.
There's no more NASA – they laid-off 7,000 employees a few years ago. Today the US depend of a ride from the Russians to be able to go to the International Space Station.
No more Shuttles, no more a lot of things....
US technology is in decline, and today they can't launch even an IPO such as Facebook, or an website for Obamacare without major problems.
In the area of projecting power to the rest of the world regarding American technology the US is not doing too well in Iraq, Afghanistan, and so on..., but today the US still does much better in Hollywood with its special effects in Superman, Spider-Man, Batman, Iron Man, Avatar, The Phantom, and Tarzan.
The reality is: the US technology is going to hell in a handbasket.
There's no more NASA – they laid-off 7,000 employees a few years ago. Today the US depend of a ride from the Russians to be able to go to the International Space Station.
No more Shuttles, no more a lot of things....
US technology is in decline, and today they can't launch even an IPO such as Facebook, or an website for Obamacare without major problems.
In the area of projecting power to the rest of the world regarding American technology the US is not doing too well in Iraq, Afghanistan, and so on..., but today the US still does much better in Hollywood with its special effects in Superman, Spider-Man, Batman, Iron Man, Avatar, The Phantom, and Tarzan.
Today, the collapsing US economic and
financial system is so screwed up that can't even put together some
simple stuff and make it work as in the past.
Are we suffering from secular stagnation, or there are many reasons why this is happening?
Are we suffering from secular stagnation, or there are many reasons why this is happening?
The party is over, here is why:
1) Major US corporations have been
exporting US jobs for many years to countries around the world. When
these jobs are exported from the US there are long term consequences:
they area also exporting besides the jobs, a portion of US GDP on an
exponential basis, and Federal, State, and local taxes. And also the
research and development, and the new technologies attached to these
industries that have been exported to other countries.
2) Besides the millions of jobs that
were exported to other countries from the US labor market, we had
massive layoffs in the auto and airline industry in the US since the
year 2000. These businesses are not there anymore to rehire Americans
who don't have a job.
The auto industry didn't lose only the jobs related to the closing of car manufacturing plants and car dealerships around the country – when they closed these businesses they also had a domino effect in many businesses that depended on these businesses for their survival – as a result many people involved with these industries also went out of business.
The auto industry didn't lose only the jobs related to the closing of car manufacturing plants and car dealerships around the country – when they closed these businesses they also had a domino effect in many businesses that depended on these businesses for their survival – as a result many people involved with these industries also went out of business.
3) Millions of jobs are being replaced
by technology, and these jobs have been eliminated forever. The
reality is: technology
is destroying
more jobs
than it's creating, and that trend is going to stay with us for a
long time to come.
4) I have been watching the talking heads and the politicians say over and over again that jobs can be created in the US if they reduce or eliminate this type of tax or this type of business regulation, and US corporations would bring to America the US$ 2 trillion dollars that they are holding outside the US.
It has nothing to do with taxes or US government regulation, today the US economic and financial system can't figure out even how to put together some simple stuff such as; the US economy is running at about 80 percent capacity, it has interest rates at very low historic rates, (interest rate close to zero rate) a flood of money available to be invested (over US$ 2 trillion dollars), and a massive amount of qualified people with all kinds of degrees who can't find a job in the US. (Over 20 percent of the population is unemployed or underemployed, and 50 percent of unemployed people in the US today has at least a college degree.)
It's sad to watch an economic system to crash, and implode, and the people are not able to use even some minimum common sense to make the old system work. The only ingredient that is missing in the US economic and financial system to be able to be relevant in the 21st century is new ideas, creativity, real innovation, and the human capital capable of putting all these pieces together and make it work.
4) I have been watching the talking heads and the politicians say over and over again that jobs can be created in the US if they reduce or eliminate this type of tax or this type of business regulation, and US corporations would bring to America the US$ 2 trillion dollars that they are holding outside the US.
It has nothing to do with taxes or US government regulation, today the US economic and financial system can't figure out even how to put together some simple stuff such as; the US economy is running at about 80 percent capacity, it has interest rates at very low historic rates, (interest rate close to zero rate) a flood of money available to be invested (over US$ 2 trillion dollars), and a massive amount of qualified people with all kinds of degrees who can't find a job in the US. (Over 20 percent of the population is unemployed or underemployed, and 50 percent of unemployed people in the US today has at least a college degree.)
It's sad to watch an economic system to crash, and implode, and the people are not able to use even some minimum common sense to make the old system work. The only ingredient that is missing in the US economic and financial system to be able to be relevant in the 21st century is new ideas, creativity, real innovation, and the human capital capable of putting all these pieces together and make it work.
The new reality is that the United
States and Europe have mature economies, and the real economic action
in the next 20 years is going to be outside Europe and the United
States.
The truth is: there's no reason to
bring the money back to the United States; with a very mature
economy, a fast growing ageing population, a banking system based on
the “Ponzi scheme” model, an economic system that the best ideas
that is capable to create are empty shells such as Zynga, Groupon,
Facebook, and so on....and the latest “Ponzi scheme” called
Bitcoin.
The US economy has trillions of US dollars sitting on the sidelines waiting to be invested. The real unemployment rate in the US economy is around 20 percent or even higher, and more than 50 percent of these unemployed people has at least a college degree – the American capitalists don't have a clue how to invest this ton of money and use all this wasted human capital to create anything of value other than the make believe companies such as Zynga, Facebook, and Bitcoin or to create new layers of fraud on its “Ponzi schemes” in Wall Street.
For all practical purposes the US economy is finished regarding the 21st century, its imploding economy is becoming marginal, and not as important in the new world of the 21st century. The US economy is in a race to the bottom, and the US economy has not collapsed as yet just like the Soviet Union, because the US dollar has a special status as the main world reserve currency – a status that has reached the end of the line, and is in the process of being replaced with a new international monetary system compatible with the world of the 21st century.
In a nutshell: The major companies are not bringing the money back to the United States, because in the next 20 years the real global economic action will in in countries such as the BRICS, and the US economy represents the world of yesterday, and not the world of tomorrow.
The US economy has trillions of US dollars sitting on the sidelines waiting to be invested. The real unemployment rate in the US economy is around 20 percent or even higher, and more than 50 percent of these unemployed people has at least a college degree – the American capitalists don't have a clue how to invest this ton of money and use all this wasted human capital to create anything of value other than the make believe companies such as Zynga, Facebook, and Bitcoin or to create new layers of fraud on its “Ponzi schemes” in Wall Street.
For all practical purposes the US economy is finished regarding the 21st century, its imploding economy is becoming marginal, and not as important in the new world of the 21st century. The US economy is in a race to the bottom, and the US economy has not collapsed as yet just like the Soviet Union, because the US dollar has a special status as the main world reserve currency – a status that has reached the end of the line, and is in the process of being replaced with a new international monetary system compatible with the world of the 21st century.
In a nutshell: The major companies are not bringing the money back to the United States, because in the next 20 years the real global economic action will in in countries such as the BRICS, and the US economy represents the world of yesterday, and not the world of tomorrow.
What counts is that the Brics will be
responsible for 50 percent of global GDP growth in the next 8 years.
And today the BRICS have an estimated US$4 trillion in combined
foreign currency reserves.
Brazil is 100 percent energy
self-sufficient, and if the entire Middle East goes up in flames -
that would not affect the Brazilian economy as such Middle East event
would affect the economy of other countries around the world.
Brazil has all the resources that it needs for economic development, as a matter of fact Brazil is rich in just about everything that you can imagine, there are only 2 other countries in the world that has all the resources that they need to be 100 percent self-sufficient such as Brazil - the 2 countries are: Canada and Russia.
Brazil has all the resources that it needs for economic development, as a matter of fact Brazil is rich in just about everything that you can imagine, there are only 2 other countries in the world that has all the resources that they need to be 100 percent self-sufficient such as Brazil - the 2 countries are: Canada and Russia.
Today the United States has an old and
aging economy which is becoming obsolete very fast with a dying
manufacturing sector, and many parts of the economy is being
outsourced to other countries – there's only one area that still
surviving and doing well, and today makes the core of the United
States economy: the Military Industrial Complex.
The reality is, the US government needs to create on a constant basis the perception that some kind of threat is out there against the United States.
The reality is, the US government needs to create on a constant basis the perception that some kind of threat is out there against the United States.
The Military Industrial Complex is a very important part of the US economy. This is one of the few remaining areas that the United States still has a comparative advantage regarding the other countries around the world.
Today we can define the core of the US economy as being: War, Inc.
The US Military Industrial Complex
became a very important piece of the US economy for about the last 70
years, since the 1940’s. And for a long time the United States has
been the number one arms dealer around the world.
The global arms exports, which the
United States has over 60 percent share of the international market
it's also a very profitable business for the financial sector
including the major players in banking and the insurance industry.
It is very important for the US economy that the US government creates on a constant basis the perception that some kind of threat is out there against any self-interest of the United States anywhere around the world.
Overblown defense expenditures year
after year were the “Achilles heel” that put the last two
superpowers on the poor house, and out of business – first, the
British Empire, and second the “Soviet Union Empire”, and now the
United States it has been following on the footsteps of these former
superpowers, and the United states is on the same path, and right on
schedule to also become very soon a former superpower.
The Russians have their two military bases one in the Crimea, and another in Syria – and the US mainstream media want to paint Russia as the dangerous country, and the boogieman.
In the other hand, we have the US with 800 to 1,000 military bases around the world including 7 military bases built in Colombia in the last few years, and after Gadaffi's death, the US has built 35 military bases all over Africa to terrorize the Africans with drone attacks.
“The Collapsing US Economy”
This book is a reality check about the United States economic decline, and the author gives all kinds of detail to document it regarding natural resources, and everything else necessary for a country to continue relevant. Here is what I posted on my Facebook page about the book.
February 25, 2013
The Russians have their two military bases one in the Crimea, and another in Syria – and the US mainstream media want to paint Russia as the dangerous country, and the boogieman.
In the other hand, we have the US with 800 to 1,000 military bases around the world including 7 military bases built in Colombia in the last few years, and after Gadaffi's death, the US has built 35 military bases all over Africa to terrorize the Africans with drone attacks.
All these military investments based on
borrowed money, as the infrastructure of the US which is supposed to
support all this is imploding and collapsing, and becoming very quickly the
infrastructure of a “Banana Republic”.
The economic and financial system of
the United States is in a coma, and is being kept alive by massive US
government intervention and Federal Reserve market manipulation, and
artificial interest policy that in the end is undermining the
foundations of what is left of the US economy and financial system.
“The Collapsing US Economy”
This book is a reality check about the United States economic decline, and the author gives all kinds of detail to document it regarding natural resources, and everything else necessary for a country to continue relevant. Here is what I posted on my Facebook page about the book.
February 25, 2013
I suggest that the people interested in Brazil also should read this
book: "Brazil is the New America" - How Brazil Offers
Upward Mobility in a Collapsing World" By: James Dale
Davidson.
The author not only gives an excellent outlook for the Brazilian economy in the coming years (which is not a surprise to me since I have been documenting a lot of that information on my articles over the years), but at the same time the book gives a lot of detail about the collapsing US economy, and why this current great depression it will be deeper and longer than the Great Depression of the 1930's for the United States.
The author not only gives an excellent outlook for the Brazilian economy in the coming years (which is not a surprise to me since I have been documenting a lot of that information on my articles over the years), but at the same time the book gives a lot of detail about the collapsing US economy, and why this current great depression it will be deeper and longer than the Great Depression of the 1930's for the United States.
As I was reading this book I also
realized that the author could have had an alternative title for this
book, and he probably left to the publisher to chose which title
would be better for this book.
The alternative title for the book probably was: “The Collapsing US Economy” - And why this current great depression it will be deeper and longer than the Great Depression of the 1930's for the United States.
The alternative title for the book probably was: “The Collapsing US Economy” - And why this current great depression it will be deeper and longer than the Great Depression of the 1930's for the United States.
"Brazil is the New
America" - How Brazil Offers Upward Mobility in a Collapsing
World" By: James Dale Davidson
Here
is a reality check regarding the United States infrastructure and
collapsing economy
In April 2011, I did watch on the
History Channel a new program about “The Crumbling of
America.”
If you have the chance of watching that program then you will realize that the United States is becoming at an alarming rate a 3rd world country. If you pay attention the signs are all around us.
The Crumbling of America – History Channel - April 9, 2011
If you have the chance of watching that program then you will realize that the United States is becoming at an alarming rate a 3rd world country. If you pay attention the signs are all around us.
The Crumbling of America – History Channel - April 9, 2011
The sad reality is that the United States is collapsing just like the Soviet Union – the collapse is already underway, and it is reaching an advanced stage.
2hr. special for History channel about
America's crumbling infrastructure. Be afraid, be very afraid!
Throughout world history, great
civilizations have survived and extended their rule through
dependence on great infrastructures. Rome had its roads and
aqueducts. The Mayans had their pyramids and palaces. But what
happens when society neglects its infrastructure? Right now, the U.S.
infrastructure is collapsing and it impacts every single person in
this country. In the first half of the 20th century, our bridges,
highways, tunnels, dams, levees, ports, water and gas pipelines were
built during the greatest age of construction the world had ever
seen. But now these steel and concrete achievements are
deteriorating. More than 70,000 of our nation's bridges are rated
structurally deficient. Massive grid failures have left millions in
the dark. 25,000 miles of commercial navigable waterways and locks
have exceeded their 50-year design life. Everything from dilapidated
levees to pipelines to railroads is past their expiration date.
The United States Outstanding Debt
The United States has a very large amount of outstanding debt, as of March 18, 2014 the United States has US$ 17.5 trillion dollars in outstanding debt, and also an estimated US$ 200 trillion dollars of liabilities coming due in the coming years.
With an economic system that is imploding and becoming irrelevant in relation to the world of the 21st century, and the US dollar losing very fast its status as the main reserve currency – that means that the US economic and financial system is in deep water.
The United States Outstanding Debt
The United States has a very large amount of outstanding debt, as of March 18, 2014 the United States has US$ 17.5 trillion dollars in outstanding debt, and also an estimated US$ 200 trillion dollars of liabilities coming due in the coming years.
With an economic system that is imploding and becoming irrelevant in relation to the world of the 21st century, and the US dollar losing very fast its status as the main reserve currency – that means that the US economic and financial system is in deep water.
The only remaining
superiority is military. This is classic for a crumbling system.
Emmanuel Todd's book: “After the
Empire - The Breakdown of the American Order”
In January 2004 I posted this
information on the Elite Trader Economics forum regarding Emmanuel
Todd's book: “After the Empire - The Breakdown of the American
Order” as follows:
July 26, 2003
The Conceited Empire
A historian credited with predicting
the downfall of the Soviet Union in the 1970s now says that the US
has been on its way out for the last decade.
Emmanuel Todd compares the US to 16th
century Spain, arguing that US economic power is being undermined by
the decline of its industrial base and its increased dependence on
other countries to feed its consumption. The power and influence of
the United States is being overestimated, claims French historian and
demographer Emmanuel Todd. "There will be no American Empire."
"The world is too large and dynamic to be controlled by one
power." According to Todd, whose 1976 book predicted the fall of
the Soviet Union, there is no question: the decline of America the
Superpower has already begun.
Mr. Todd, wrote that America is
economically, militarily, and ideologically too weak to actually
control the world.
The US is still the most powerful nation in the world today, but there are many indicators that they are about to relinquish their position as solitary superpower. He said: “In my 1976 book, La chute finale (Before the Fall: The End of Soviet Domination), I based my prediction of the fall of the Soviet Union on the relevant indicators of the time. An analysis of current demographic, cultural, military, economic, and ideological factors leads me to conclude that the remaining pole of the former bipolar world order will not remain alone in its position. The world has become too large and complex to accept the predominance of one power. There will not be an American Empire.
The American hegemony from the end of WW II into the late 1980s in military, economic, and ideological terms definitely had imperial qualities. In 1945 fully half the manufactured goods in the world originated in the US. And although there was a Communist-bloc in Eurasia, East Germany, and North Korea, the strong American military, the navy and air force, exercised strategic control over the rest of the globe, with the support and understanding of many allies, whose common goal was the fight against communism. Although communism had some dispersed support among intellectuals, workers, and peasant groups, the power and influence of the US was by and large with the agreement of a majority throughout the world. It was a benevolent empire. The Marshall Plan was an exemplary political and economic strategy. America was, for decades, a 'good' superpower.
It has, above all, become a weak one. The US no longer has the might to control the large strategic players, primarily Germany and Japan. Their industrial capacity is clearly smaller than that of Europe and approximately equal to that of Japan. With twice the population, this is no great accomplishment. Their military potential is nevertheless still the largest by far, but is declining and consistently over estimated. The use of military bases is dependent on the good will of their allies, many of which are not as willing as before.
The theatrical military activism against inconsequential rogue states that we are currently witnessing plays out against this backdrop. It is a sign of weakness, not of strength. But weakness makes for unpredictability. The US is about to become a problem for the world, where we have previously been accustomed to seeing a solution in them.
*****
Another interview with Emmanuel Todd regarding his book. This interview was the subject of some discussion at Metafilter.com.
In a Nutshell:
The US leadership doesn't know anymore
where to turn. They know that they are monetarily dependent on the
rest of the world, and they are afraid of becoming inconsequential.
There are no more Nazis and Communists. While a demographic,
democratic, and politically stabilizing world recognizes that it is
increasingly less dependent on the US, America is discovering that it
is increasingly dependent on the rest of the world. That is the
reason for the rush into military action and adventures. It is
classic.
Classic?
The only remaining superiority is
military. This is classic for a crumbling system. The final glory is
militarism. The fall of the Soviet Union took place in an identical
context. Their economy was in decline, and their leadership grew
fearful. Their military apparatus gained in size and stature and the
Russians embarked on adventures to forget their economic
shortcomings. The parallels in the US are obvious. The process has
significantly accelerated in the past few months.
...One of the working propositions of
my book, After the Empire is that the concept of military control of
the globe no longer makes any sense. In relation to the military,
there will be a balance of power in the future. There is still a
nuclear balance of power between the US and Russia. The notion that
sections of the globe can be controlled through military might is
passé, because it is unrealistic.
You can destroy regimes and bomb their infrastructure, as the Americans have done in Afghanistan, but the populations -- including those in the developing world -- have become educated and literate enough to eliminate any possibility of re-colonization. The only power that ultimately counts today is economic power.
...Most apparent is how clumsy the US
has been to date, and how far they have moved away from any notion of
universality. They don't see the world as it really is anymore. They
are failing in any balanced and fair approach to their allies. All of
this reminds me of Germany under Wilhelm II. The US is losing allies
steadily. One gets the impression that an office somewhere in
Washington has been tasked with the duty to daily prepare a scheme to
develop new enemies for the US.
*****
Emmanuel Todd is an outstanding
historian and forecaster. He has a special
credential that nobody else has; in 1976 he wrote a book predicting
and explaining in detail the coming collapse of the Soviet Empire. He
was away ahead of his time, and he was the first person to spot the
coming problems.
Once again, he does a superb job on his new book when he explain in detail all the interactions today between the countries around the world with the US, and the causes for the coming collapse of the American economic system. Emmanuel Todd's book: “After the Empire - The Breakdown of the American Order”
Emmanuel Todd is a 62 year-old Historian and Political Scientist at the National Institute for Demographics in Paris. His research examines the rise and fall of peoples and cultures over the course of thousands of years.
Once again, he does a superb job on his new book when he explain in detail all the interactions today between the countries around the world with the US, and the causes for the coming collapse of the American economic system. Emmanuel Todd's book: “After the Empire - The Breakdown of the American Order”
Emmanuel Todd is a 62 year-old Historian and Political Scientist at the National Institute for Demographics in Paris. His research examines the rise and fall of peoples and cultures over the course of thousands of years.
********************
.
